Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 0.841399 0.985038 1.145668 1.338624 1.564176 1.819574 2.130869
2024-11-03 0.613550 0.803623 1.040915 1.359019 1.774662 2.299895 3.015153
2024-11-10 0.518548 0.735739 1.028998 1.454137 2.055560 2.877442 4.088960
2024-11-17 0.441807 0.668865 0.995568 1.500264 2.261790 3.370754 5.114194
2024-11-24 0.376786 0.603245 0.947440 1.509132 2.405166 3.783575 6.074606
2024-12-01 0.322548 0.542791 0.894283 1.496619 2.506364 4.137538 6.986667
2024-12-08 0.280627 0.494190 0.850523 1.488996 2.608867 4.500452 7.957597
2024-12-15 0.250277 0.459658 0.823689 1.503442 2.746723 4.935285 9.106695
2024-12-22 0.215090 0.410826 0.764448 1.450697 2.755908 5.143751 9.876988
2024-12-29 0.206049 0.408432 0.787586 1.550714 3.056884 5.914776 11.794163
2025-01-05 0.180361 0.370250 0.738400 1.505340 3.072881 6.151480 12.711145
2025-01-12 0.158064 0.335481 0.690858 1.455889 3.072483 6.353380 13.581975
2025-01-19 0.138568 0.304182 0.647040 1.410020 3.077504 6.575908 14.549137
2025-01-26 0.127636 0.289605 0.635947 1.432197 3.230894 7.129601 16.315643
2025-02-02 0.124270 0.291115 0.659203 1.532494 3.569239 8.125091 19.210061
2025-02-09 0.117086 0.282835 0.659652 1.581116 3.797241 8.906708 21.729166
2025-02-16 0.107915 0.268504 0.644301 1.590464 3.934348 9.498369 23.884172
2025-02-23 0.098368 0.251824 0.621080 1.577274 4.014576 9.965405 25.800229
2025-03-02 0.090180 0.237334 0.601129 1.569240 4.106216 10.471854 27.890199
2025-03-09 0.084087 0.227334 0.590907 1.584466 4.259279 11.151529 30.530819
2025-03-16 0.075114 0.208435 0.555552 1.528871 4.218570 11.330019 31.859990
2025-03-23 0.074419 0.211875 0.578854 1.634292 4.626971 12.742844 36.789433
2025-03-30 0.067129 0.195917 0.548191 1.586467 4.604631 12.992804 38.478581